21. September 2011

Eyes Open

Gestern gab es ein Kammerurteil des EGMR im Yukos-Prozess... Da auch bereits bei dem Prozess über Khodorkovsky selbst keine politische Motivation seiner Inhaftierung nachgewiesen werden konnte, wurde auch keine bei der Zerschlagung seines Konzerns gesehen. Traurig...

"For former Yukos shareholders, all this makes the prospect of ever getting substantial compensation for their losses rather more distant. For other investors, it probably won’t make a huge difference. The ruling avoids Russia’s investment image being further undermined just when the Kremlin is engaged in its latest attempt to persuade investors it is safe to go there. But it is unlikely to make investors any more keen. As Tim Ash, head of emerging markets research at Royal Bank of Scotland, jokes: “Investors in Russia already go in with their eyes open – or maybe with their eyes closed.”

Russian assets looked undervalued on a fundamental basis before the market correction of the past few weeks, and still do after it. But political uncertainty – above all the unanswered question of whether Vladimir Putin or Dmitry Medvedev will be Russia’s next president – is dominating investors’ thinking. Last week’s ouster of billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov as head of a Kremlin-approved liberal “opposition” party, and his unusual tirade against Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s political puppet-master, only added to the murk. Could this be Russia’s system of “managed democracy” starting to unravel? Until there is more political clarity, whatever Strasbourg says on Yukos is likely to be of secondary importance." weiter lesen

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